We are Not Doomed

I don’t work in AI, so I haven’t felt qualified to weigh in on Evan Hubinger’s post on X about the risks of AI. As a refresher, he’s a top safety researcher at Anthropic, and he said AI is advancing so quickly he believes there is a greater than 10% chance it “could kill all humans” within the next decade.

He said the risk from the models that currently exist is “low,” but he’s “worried” the technology might develop and improve itself soon to the point where it poses an existential risk to humanity. He didn’t say how, but since his post, tons of people have presented their own theories and also come out saying AI is dangerous.

Again, I don’t work in AI, but I have opinions too, and they’re based on research, observation, and lived experience. Rather than believing we’re all doomed, that the machines are going to kill us all, I see AI as just another form of technology in a long line of technology that humans can use for good or evil. We like to pretend that the threats to our existence are always outside of us – that some machine is going to become autonomous and ruin us all – but the reality is humans are the threat and the solution.

Yes, yes, I know in some instances AI is acting autonomously, and yes, I know that can be dangerous. But you know what’s more dangerous? The humans using AI for nefarious purposes. And guess what? Humans have been using various forms of technology for nefarious purposes for a long, long time, and we’re still here! Why? Because there are more good humans than bad ones.

Repeatedly, we’ve seen humans implementing laws, creating regulations, building new systems, constructing guardrails, and doing all the things that need to be done to enhance safety. Not without challenges, not without protest, but doing something nonetheless. This is always how progress is made. We have tamper-evident seals on pill bottles because in 1982, seven people died after taking extra-strength Tylenol capsules laced with potassium cyanide. We have better working conditions because people banded together, protested, and created labor unions and labor laws.

Humanity is not doomed, but I understand why it’s easy to fall under that spell. Fear is a powerful emotion, and fear is tied to survival. However, as my friend Emma says, “There will always be an invitation to the fear party, but you can decline.” I choose to decline the invitation because I see more things to be hopeful about than to be scared of.

I see people showing up for each other in small and large ways. Someone dropping off a COVID test because their friend can’t leave the house. A neighbor offering to watch someone’s children while the parents are unavailable. Doctors and nurses purposely putting themselves in harm’s way because they’re saving lives. Three people wading into the flooded basement beneath the damaged Chernobyl reactor to drain a pool of cooling water and prevent a catastrophic second steam explosion. And doing so with the knowledge that the contaminated water would likely kill them, but choosing to do it anyway because they wanted to save lives.

My spiritual teacher says, “There are some people who are pessimistic. They say that the society around us is very bleak … Pessimists say this because they have never made any detailed study of human history, nor do they care to. Had they done so, they would certainly be optimistic.”

Am I optimistic? I’m not sure. But what I am sure of is that humanity is not doomed.

I dream of a world where we remember humanity has always faced challenges and overcome them. A world where we recognize the threat to humanity is not machines, but other humans. A world where we remember that while there are some not-great humans in existence, they are fewer in number than the kind and caring ones. A world where we realize humanity is not doomed.

Another world is not only possible, it’s probable.